West Ham’s Premier League relegation chances shift in new supercomputer prediction

West Ham United‘s chances of staying in the Premier League were dealt a huge blow after their 2-0 loss to Aston Villa on Sunday.

The Hammers secured a valuable point when they drew to Manchester City a week earlier, but the defeat at Villa Park has done them no favours.

With seven games to go, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have a lot of work to do as they remain 18th, one point adrift of safety.

West Ham are clearly in danger of relegation, and their fears of dropping down to the Championship have increased after this weekend’s result.

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What is West Ham’s latest relegation prediction?

Tottenham’s 3-0 loss to Nottingham Forest means the Hammers will feel confident that they can catch up with their London rivals, who are in complete disarray.

After West Ham secured a point against Man City, the possibility of them dropping down to the Championship was 46.57.

However, as per Opta Analyst‘s updated standings, the Hammers’ relegation chances now stand at a 57.48 per cent likelihood.

Premier LeaguePredicted finishPredicted pointsRelegation chances
Nottingham Forest16th4111.60%
Tottenham17th3827.10%
West Ham18th3757.48%
Burnley19th2699.91%
Wolves20th2599.94%
Opta’s predicted Premier League table

West Ham, Burnley and Wolves are expected to go down, but with Tottenham’s chances listed at 27.10 per cent, anything is possible for Nuno’s side.

That said, the Portuguese head coach is running out of time to save the Hammers, and his side need to respond to Sunday’s loss well when they return to action after the international break.

West Ham have four home games left, and if they are at the top of their game, they should be able to secure some valuable points in those matches.

With Crysencio Summerville expected to return after the international break, the Hammers will fancy their chances, and it’s clear that Nuno still has the backing of the fans for now.

Nuno Espirito Santo's record at West Ham.
Credit: Imago

United’s best hopes of securing their next win is in their upcoming match against 20th-placed Wolves at the London Stadium. If they fail to win that game, Nuno would find himself under severe pressure.

Why West Ham’s next match vs Wolves will be crucial to their survival hopes

The visitors are destined for relegation, but that doesn’t mean they’ll go down without a fight.

Having beaten Liverpool and Aston Villa in recent weeks, as well as taking a point off league leaders Arsenal, Wolves have posed a threat to every team they’ve played in the last month.

West Ham will have to be wary, especially given their poor home record in 2025-26.

With only 13 points from 15 home games this campaign, West Ham have struggled in front of their home fans, and they can’t afford to start the game slowly against Wolves.

If the Hammers beat Rob Edwards’ side, they’ll move out of the drop zone and go level on points with Nottingham Forest in 16th.

It is a match that will not only define West Ham’s season but could shape their short-term future as a club.

Therefore, it’s imperative they secure all three points on 10 April.