Millwall manager Alex Neil and West Ham United manager Nuno Espirito Santo
Nuno Espirito Santo and Alex NeilImago

Why Saturday's Dockers Derby will be all-time West Ham classic - at Millwall's expense

James Barker

Senior Correspondent AUTHORITY Senior sports journalist with editorial experience at Football League World. FOCUS Statistical analysis and long-form opinion across the Breaking Media network. THE INSIGHT James utilises data and a network of club contacts to deliver verified, expert analysis. He provides the statistical depth and editorial judgment behind the stories to ensure fans get the full picture

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West Ham United should be in for a feast when Millwall welcome them to The Den on Saturday.

It's the gameweek every West Ham and Millwall fan has been waiting for since February 2012.

That, of course, being the last time a Dockers Derby was contested, with the Irons running out 2-1 winners at the Boleyn Ground.

The eyes of the nation will be on the action unfolding in Bermondsey come 12:30pm on Saturday.

Just for how long it's been since these two renewed their rivalries, this weekend's clash instantly has a classic-in-waiting feel to it.

And the underlying numbers from West Ham and Millwall's campaigns so far only further that notion.

Why Millwall vs West Ham set to be goals galore for the Irons

It's not uncommon for big games, and derbies in particular, to be cagey affairs with minimal chances for either side.

Of course, no side will want to lose this one, and that could in theory set up a defensive stalemate at The Den.

However, as evidenced in the numbers via FotMob, Saturday is much more likely to be a relentless end-to-end affair.

No team in the Championship averages more goals per game than West Ham's 2.9 this term, whilst Millwall sit fifth on 1.9.

But in what foretells of a long afternoon for the Lions, only Burnley (2.3) have conceded more goals per game than their 1.9.

The Hammers top the Championship for expected goals (xG - 16.1), but Millwall are breathing down their necks in second with 13.7.

Again, no side in the division has created more big chances than West Ham's 31, and so they'll be confident of doing major damage to Millwall.

Millwall also commit the fifth-most fouls per game this season with 12.4, offering the Hammers plenty of opportunities from set-piece situations.

All of this paints a worrying picture for Millwall, and it's only getting worse for them too.

Millwall manager Alex Neil and West Ham United manager Nuno Espirito Santo
West Ham fans given 'incredible' message amid 'crazy, mental' scenes Alan Brazil expects before Millwall

Millwall's injury situation to have West Ham licking their lips

If there's one thing no manager wants heading into a derby game, it's an injury crisis.

Well good news for West Ham then, because that's exactly what Millwall boss Alex Neil has got on his hands.

Nuno Espirito Santo won't be in the mood for pity though, rather, he and the likes of Taty Castellanos will spot a golden opportunity to tee off on a bruised Lions side.

Alfie Doughty, Lukas Jensen, Josh Coburn, Casper de Norre, Tristan Crama, Ryan Leonard, Mihailo Ivanovic and Mathis Servais are all injury doubts for Saturday.

That's an awful lot of quality talent at Championship level, and the Hammers must be ruthless in their exploitation of it.

So, all the signs point towards Saturday being a long old afternoon for Millwall, as West Ham have all the ingredients to rout the Lions on their home soil.

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