Dean White

Thu 25 March 2021 15:47, UK

Both players have been lighting it up in the Championship this season and both have been linked with summer moves to West Ham.

Brentford’s Ivan Toney and Blackburn’s Adam Armstrong are two of the three top goalscorers in the Championship this term and one of them could be on the way to East London in time for the 2021/22 campaign if reports are to be believed.

It’s no secret that David Moyes is going to be on the lookout for a new centre-forward ahead of next season with Michail Antonio the only recognised player in that position at the London Stadium.

In a recent exclusive interview with West Ham Zone, The Athletic’s West Ham correspondent Roshane Thomas has said that Brentford striker Toney is “a player they’ve definitely been interested in”.

However, Claret & Hugh have reported that Blackburn ace Armstrong is the Hammers’ “number one” striker target as it stands.

We’ve done some digging courtesy of Wyscout and have compiled the stats to suggest which striker would be a better signing for West Ham in the summer.

Firstly, the basics. Toney, 25, has scored 28 goals and supplied nine assists in 36 Championship appearances for Brentford this season while 24-year-old Armstrong has 19 goals and three assists in his 33 second-tier outings for Blackburn [transfermarkt].

Armstrong hasn’t scored since February 17 and since then has had five matches without a goal while also sitting out of four due to injury.

Toney’s recent form, on the other hand, has seen him score in three matches in a row. One of which was in a 1-0 win against Blackburn (Armstrong didn’t feature) while the other two were in draws with Derby and Nottingham Forest.

The graph below shows how Toney and Armstrong compare in certain key stats for centre-forwards. We’ve included stats like shot assists and fouls suffered because as well as scoring goals, Antonio has proven he has a great ability to link-up with fellow attackers and win set-pieces in dangerous areas.

As you can see, Toney suffers way more fouls per 90 minutes of Championship football than Armstrong but the Blackburn ace averages more shots, shots on target and progressive runs than the Brentford goal machine.

Despite averaging more shots, Toney’s xG per 90 minutes is 0.58 and Armstrong’s is 0.36. Toney outperforms his xG massively with 0.73 goals per full Championship match while Armstrong’s is only marginally better at 0.38.

As mentioned, Antonio’s hold-up play, ability in the air and strength are key reasons as to why he’s done so well this season because he absolutely suits what Moyes is trying to do with the team.

Next up, you can see the comparisons between Toney and Armstrong when it comes to offensive duels and aerial duels.

While Armstrong is involved in more offensive duels, which is when a player in possession of the ball is involved in a challenge on the ground, Toney is more successful.

Toney also absolutely trumps Armstrong in the air – which could prove to be a killer blow for the Ewood Park hitman when considering which one West Ham should sign.

However, the biggest thing to consider when it comes to transfer targets is the potential fee a club will have to pay to sign him.

TeamTalk reported earlier this month that Toney could be valued as high as £30million in the summer transfer window with Brentford using last summer’s £28million sale of Ollie Watkins to Aston Villa as a yardstick.

As for Armstrong, The Sun has reported Blackburn want £25million for their centre-forward, with Watkins again used as a guideline for their valuation (thanks, Dean Smith).

Toney is a year older than Armstrong and could cost £5million more than the Blackburn man, but after examining the data, he’s clearly the outstanding striker who’s being linked with West Ham.

For £5million extra, Moyes would be signing a striker who’s not only prolific in the box and in superb form, but he’s also far better in the air than Armstrong and is far more similar to Antonio.

There might be a bigger demand for Toney in the summer because of how many goals he’s scored in West London this season but we have no doubt who we believe the Irons should be signing.

In other West Ham news, Frank McAvennie has reiterated the need for a new centre-forward in his latest exclusive interview with this site.