WHZ Stats & Tactics: Wasteful Brighton perfect opponent for West Ham to get back to winning ways
West Ham have enjoyed an impressive start to the Premier League season but their performance in the 3-0 defeat at Chelsea on Monday was anything but that.
David Moyes’ side failed to register a shot on target at Stamford Bridge and had just 45.8 per cent possession [Wyscout].
West Ham may have fewer shots and less possession again on Sunday when they take on Brighton at the London Stadium but this match against Graham Potter’s side could be the perfect springboard for the Irons to get back to winning ways despite that.
Brighton are one of the most wasteful attacking teams in the Premier League.
Potter’s men have scored 16 goals in 14 top-flight matches this season but according to stats by Wyscout, they have an xG (expected goals) of 23.74, which means they have scored seven fewer goals than they should have.
Brighton’s xG is actually the fourth highest in the league, ranking them higher than Everton [23.39], Leicester [23.02], Manchester United [22.61] and, astonishingly, Manchester City [21.54].
The south coast club also ranks sixth for possession [54.6%] and their xGA (expected goals against) is the third-best in the Premier League at 14.43.
Brighton, based on those numbers, should be one of the best teams in the Premier League but they will go into their trip to East London 17th in the table with just two wins in 14 games.
For all the chances they create and for all their possession and for all their solid defensive work, Brighton are hugely wasteful and that could come in handy for a West Ham team who’s xGA is ninth-worst in the league at 20.72.
Stats on the Premier League website show striker Neal Maupay has missed six big chances this season, which ranks him joint-seventh in the top-flight. Danny Welbeck, Aaron Connolly and Lewis Dunk have missed three each while Leandro Trossard has missed two.
Maupay’s xG for the season in the Premier League is eight but the French forward has only scored half that figure.
Against Liverpool last month, he struck a penalty wide of Alisson’s goal. Brighton also missed a chance through Connolly earlier in the game when he was put through on goal in a one-on-one situation versus Allison.
Even though Brighton have one of the more solid defences in the league based on xGA, they have conceded the joint-most number of penalties [5].
Brighton have all the style and no substance.
We have full faith in West Ham’s ability to beat them.
Moyes knows he can commit more men in the attack knowing that Brighton’s defence is tougher to break down and their attack is so wasteful.
Mark Noble started in an attacking midfield role against Chelsea on Monday but we expect that to not be the case against Brighton with Said Benrahma potentially coming in.
One simple change like that could be enough to really take advantage of Brighton’s major weaknesses.
In other West Ham news, the Irons should make a ruthless decision on Winston Reid’s future after his loan deal at MLS side Kansas ended.