West Ham United at risk of FFP breach under new Premier League rules – finance expert
West Ham would be at risk of breaching proposed new Premier League spending rules according to analysis from Kieran Maguire.
The University of Liverpool sport finance lecturer took to Twitter on 12 March, after it emerged a day earlier that the top flight may be scrapping their profit and sustainability regulations in the summer for a UEFA system [Sky Sports, 11 March], using the most recent available figures for a model to analyse which clubs may be over the limit next term.
The current system of a £105million limit to permitted losses over a rolling three-year period is expected to be replaced by a spending cap tied to a percentage of club revenue, with Maguire’s projection putting West Ham almost £15m over.
Maguire wrote: “Looking at the new PL proposed rules in relation to squad spending caps and applying to 22/23. Assumptions are Player wages are 70% of total, cap is 70% of revenue for clubs in [UEFA competition] & 85% if not. Transfer spend calculated as average net spend for last three years.
“Table shows aspirational clubs with owners wanting to spend (Newcastle, [Aston] Villa etc) would struggle, existing clubs in UEFA would be fine, despite lower % spend allowed, Everton would be within the limit.”
Kieran Maguire figures show West Ham face profit and sustainability issue
West Ham would surely class themselves as an “aspirational” club, even if detractors of David Moyes’ position in charge might beg do differ.
Investment in top players such as Lucas Paqueta, Gianluca Scamacca and Mohammed Kudus for hefty transfer fees shows as much, so it isn’t very encouraging that such clubs are tipped to struggle under the new regulations.
The fact that Declan Rice was sold for a huge £105m fee to Arsenal in the summer [Sky Sports, 17 July] might have some effect, but that money was then turned around and spent on Kudus, Edson Alvarez, James Ward-Prowse and Konstantinos Mavropanos.
And the club took a hit on Scamacca’s exit to Atalanta just one season after arriving for £35.5m [talkSPORT, 5 August].
So, regardless of what happens with the futures of Moyes and Tim Steidten it looks like this could be a new headache for David Sullivan.
It would seem to be pretty unreasonable for the league authorities to completely overhaul the rules without allowing some sort of adjustment period, so it may be that West Ham will have the space to get themselves within the proposed limit, but fans of Everton might equally suggest the Premier League isn’t particularly bothered about being reasonable when it comes to the spending regulations.
In other West Ham news, the Irons have their eye on “bigger” replacements at manager amid an update on a former player returning.
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